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Abstract Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality. 

Summary Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack.We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in maturePinus edulisunder experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostomasp.) ofIps confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response.Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted forc.23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site.Our results show thatde novoterpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes inP. edulisfollowing fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance ofde novoterpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.